It’s hard to believe after seventeen Republican presidential debates (I think that’s the number, which does not include forums – not sure what the difference would be) that there would be anything new to add to the storyline going into the eighteenth match, but there certainly was in this case. Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney met in Tampa, Florida on Monday night to hash it out once again – trying to give conservatives a reason to think that real “hope and change” may be in the works.

The debate was hosted by NBC News (and The Tampa Bay Times, the National Journal and the Florida Council of 100) with anchor Brian Williams (the same guy who quizzed the candidates at the Reagan library way back in September – notable because it was Rick Perry’s first showing, and Williams snidely prodded him to defend the “Texas miracle”) serving as moderator. It also marked the first event in Florida since mid-September.

But just like with a soap opera, the plot seems to change virtually every day in Republican politics -- recently aided by the results in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Iowa originally put forth Mitt Romney as the winner, and then switched to Santorum last week after the official vote tally was released. Romney then won handily in New Hampshire – which he was supposed to do. Gingrich rose from political death – again – to gain a commanding victory in South Carolina on Saturday.

Ron Paul finished a reasonably close third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and a respectable fourth in South Carolina (yes, out of four candidates, but still earned over 13% of the votes).

In other words, each candidate can claim something from the race thus far, and each has used his results to justify continuing on with his campaign.

Debates DO make a difference

I must admit, there’s been many a time when I’ve wondered whether these presidential showcases would make any difference in the ultimate outcome, but by now, it’s safe to say that they’re having a tremendous influence. Of course there were the two moments last week when Newt Gingrich thundered in defiance to questioning from Juan Williams (of Fox News) and John King (of CNN) – but the debates have also been remarkable in allowing voters to get to know all the competitors and their views.

Which includes the ones who are no longer around – Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.

The fact that Gingrich has gone from a lower-tier candidate to the top of the polls – twice – indicates that people are giving a lot of credence to his considerable skills on the debate stage.

It also makes you wonder “what might’ve been?” with candidates such as Buddy Roemer and Gary Johnson, two announced GOP contenders who have all-but been denied a chance at their “moment” because the networks sought to exclude them. Johnson did appear in two of these debates, and handled himself credibly – but Roemer has engendered almost no buzz because most people have never even heard of him.

It also could be argued that the Republican establishment has “learned its lesson” from this primary election cycle, and will be more restrictive in formats – and numbers – next time around. If these debates are allowing candidates (such as Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich) to completely bypass the party brains and gain favor on their own, who’s to say that an “outsider” like Senator Rand Paul couldn’t do the same next time around?

If that happened, you’ll really see Karl Rove sweat.

Dueling document dump

Anyone who saw Mitt Romney’s concession speech on Saturday night in South Carolina knows just how deeply the loss there affected him. He had to dig deep to try and look ‘upbeat’ over the stinging rebuke – and it’s difficult for him to show excitement even when things are going well.

How did he deal with the disappointment?

He went on the attack. Romney’s campaign stops in Florida have been noticeably more aggressive, attacking Gingrich’s relationship with Fannie and Freddie (for those who need a reminder, Gingrich said he was hired as a “historian” and not a lobbyist). Mitt also mocked Gingrich for claiming to be an “outsider.”

In addition, Romney announced on Monday that he’s going to release his tax returns (on Tuesday), which comes about a week too late in many observers’ estimation. Regardless of what’s in them, the suspicion that was generated by Romney’s weak debate answers in reference to his financial history has caused him considerable damage.

As a side note -- and not necessarily in answer to Romney’s challenge (wink wink) -- Gingrich released the contract detailing his relationship with Fannie and Freddie (from the year 2006) which has generated so much controversy. Gingrich has taken quite a lot of flak over the $1.6 million that he received from the federal mortgage giants (over several years), and clearly hopes that laying the contract on the table will satisfy the critics.

Not likely, Newt – but nice try.

Santorum and the pinball machine

Romney wasn’t the only one touching on aspects of Gingrich’s past these past few days. Rick Santorum started his campaign in Florida by once again questioning Newt’s stability -- labeling him a political “pinball” who bounces all over the board with his positions.

Santorum is trying to regain some of the momentum he had after Iowa – and after a host of conservative leaders got behind his campaign last week. Santorum finished a respectable third in South Carolina, but the exit polls also revealed that conservatives and Tea Partiers gravitated towards Gingrich in the Palmetto State in the final days.

Santorum is not nearly as flamboyant as Gingrich, and it’s doubtful that public displays of temper would have the same “benefit” for his campaign. But it’s also arguable that staying in the race as long as possible is the smart thing to do for him – after all, there are at least a couple Republicans who are probably regretting bailing out so soon.

Ron Paul looks for Sunshine elsewhere

Ron Paul didn’t seriously compete in South Carolina, and has also indicated that he’s going to bypass Florida. Polls show him running in the low teens in the state, and he’s said flat out that he’d rather put his campaign resources into states with caucuses.

In doing so, he’ll win no friends with the establishment media, but it also indicates that he’s taking a very calculated look at where he can make the greatest impact. With a fourth place finish in South Carolina (and likely a last place finish in Florida as well), Paul’s signaled that he’s not really going to try and win the nomination outright.

Instead, Paul is looking to gather as many delegates as possible, stay alive until the end, and have a “real” role at the Republican National Convention. A speaking slot in prime time?

Who cares? Paul’s after the ability to influence who gets the nomination – and that’s the big prize. Taking all things into account, a smart strategy.

Here we go again

Oh no. Brian Williams started the debate with a question about electability, immediately asking Gingrich to elaborate on some recent quotes from Romney about his “erratic” behavior and how it would be seen by the American public.

Gingrich initially took the high road, rolling off a series of “accomplishments” while serving in Congress. Romney then took the chance to hit Gingrich, and the sparring match began. “He was given a leadership position, and four years later he was resigning in disgrace.”

Ouch. What happened to the “Mr. Nice guy,” Mitt?

Gingrich even tried to drag Mike Huckabee and John McCain into the discussion, citing anti-Romney ads that had been run by those two four years ago that questioned Mitt’s ability to tell the truth. Romney replied that Gingrich’s approval rating was down to 18% in the late 90’s, and that his own Republican members of Congress had tried to get rid of him.

Romney hit Gingrich on his Fannie/Freddie “lobbying.” Gingrich fired back that he chose to resign as Speaker and “do other things”…

You get the picture.

I’m not sure any of this is going to motivate Gingrich supporters to drop him and go to Romney, or Romney supporters to drop him and head for Gingrich. But it does show that Romney, perhaps, no longer sees himself as the front-runner. And frankly, Romney’s more forceful side is his “best” side, because he actually looks like he cares about something.

Even his answer concerning his tax returns was an improvement on the “old” Mitt, saying that his documents will show that he made a lot of money and wasn’t about to apologize for being successful. Anyone who’s listened to Rush Limbaugh lately – Romney’s “defense” of his money is straight out of the EIB studio.

Santorum is a warrior in the pro-life cause

Maybe it’s because Rick Santorum was endorsed by all those conservative leaders, but now he’s talking like he’s the lone champion of conservative principles and he’s the only one to carry the flag of conservatism forward.

He did point out that both Romney and Gingrich supported the bailout of Wall Street and TARP – which is persuasive in and of itself. Of course, Ron Paul didn’t support these either, but the focus remains on the top two guys, and there’s no doubt where they stood on the matter.

But were Santorum continues to stand out is his passionate defense of life. He can definitely get worked up whenever Iran is mentioned, but you can tell that his heart is truly into it whenever the life issue comes up.

Santorum was asked about his efforts to aid Terri Schiavo’s parents several years ago in the custody battle that rocked the nation. Santorum was a leader in advocating federal intervention to stop Schiavo’s feeding tube from being removed at the time, an action that a great many objected to as an excessive intrusion by a federal government that didn’t have jurisdiction over the case.

Santorum explained that Schiavo’s parents were constituents, and that he was merely trying to make sure there was proper judicial oversight of the case. “And in a matter of life versus death, I’ll always choose life. And I would do it again.”

For such an emotionally charged issue, Santorum never wavers. Should he overcome the odds and get the nomination, there’s little doubt that social issues would receive a much larger share of the national agenda – fitting for a day that marked the 39th annual March for Life in Washington DC.

Gingrich: I’m proud of big government

He didn’t exactly say that he liked big government, but when Newt said he was proud of his role in passing Medicare Part D (George W. Bush’s massive expansion of federal healthcare coverage for seniors’ prescription drugs), no doubt many a Tea Party heart sank.

This followed Gingrich’s haughty earlier defense of Government Sponsored Enterprises (specifically related to federal housing policy) and his somewhat tepid passing over of question regarding his support for sugar subsidies (a significant issue in Florida), and Gingrich provided plenty of clues that he’s open to maintaining a federal role in all of these areas.

It all goes back to the notion that Newt is the smartest guy in the room, and if he says you can find a “solution” to a problem, the federal government has the authority – almost the duty – to do it. Gingrich talks very little about limiting government, which indicates that he just wants to run things more efficiently. In the end, it’s a similar argument to what Romney is making.

Only Newt is able to phrase it better. Gingrich is right that his negative approval ratings aren’t necessarily a barrier to his getting the nomination (and ultimately winning the general election), but you also have to think there’s SOME point where he can’t talk his way out of a situation.

And without principles, what’s left to lean on?

Paul’s conciliatory tone

When talking about Ron Paul’s part in Monday night’s debate, it first must be noted that once again, he didn’t get many opportunities to speak. Neither did Santorum if truth be told, but Paul’s role was seriously reduced by Williams’ willingness to let Gingrich and Romney fire accusations at each other – and then allow the other to “respond.”

When Paul did talk, he seemed to go out of his way to emphasize the positive aspects of his platform – and even to indicate that he would look to find areas of agreement with the other candidates when the time comes.

When asked if he would go the third party route, Paul said (for the thousandth time) that he had no plans to do so. When asked if he could support Gingrich if he were the nominee, Paul noted that Gingrich had moved closer to his position on issues such as regulating the FED – but that a serious difference existed on foreign policy.

But what was perhaps Paul’s best answer of the evening came at the end, when the candidates were asked if the negative ferocity of the campaign would ultimately hurt the party, and whether the other candidates were sufficiently conservative: “Nobody has defined what being conservative means, which is having a smaller government and liberty,” Paul retorted.

He continued, “We talk pretty good, but when we get in power, we lose our way. The role of government is to protect liberty, not to oversee the welfare state and be the policeman of the world. What’s wrong with having the government out of our lives? How do we determine the limits of government? We have a pretty good guide, the Constitution.”

In all these endless hours of “debate,” Paul is the one who consistently talks about the Constitution. For this reason, it’s important that he stay in the race – and force the others to at least acknowledge the limits in place to restrain government and protect individual freedom.

Florida votes on the 31st… or do they?

Much has been said about how Florida allows early voting, and as much as one-third of the Republicans may have already cast their ballots.

Who does that favor? Romney because he was so far ahead before South Carolina? Gingrich because it means that he’ll capture a big chunk of those waiting to decide at the last minute? Paul, because he’s got such avid support and they’ll make sure everyone who favors him will send in a ballot? Or Santorum, because his message has been consistent and will ultimately catch on when Romney and Gingrich destroy each other?

The fact is, we just don’t know. Monday night’s debate showed that the GOP race has evolved in a short period of time since South Carolina, but things are still very much up in the air.

And that, in itself, may be a good thing for conservatives who want the contest to last until the GOP convention this summer.

Note: The next GOP debate is Thursday night.