Iran

Any shooting war in the Persian Gulf could see insurance rates for tankers soar, a constriction of oil exports, and surging prices, plunging us into a worldwide recession for which one man would be held responsible: Donald Trump. If we start a war with Iran, on top of the five in which we are engaged still, then the party that offers to extricate us will be listened to, as Trump was listened to, when he promised to extricate us from the forever wars of the Middle East.

When the demonstrators in the streets of Tehran rightly cry "Death to the Dictator," Khamenei is the man they are talking about. Trump must meet with him. Mike Pompeo can deal with Rouhani. (Incidentally, the idea that Rouhani is a "moderate" is eyewash believed only by John Kerry and the editors of the New York Times. He has put more people to death than his supposedly hardline predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

Candidate Trump appeared to understand Saudi Arabia. President Trump acts like other submissive royal retainers George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. Instead of campaigning to hand the Middle East over to the Saudi royals, the Trump administration should stand for America’s interests.

There is no sense in issuing threats that require the choice between ill-advised U.S. action or lost U.S. credibility. President Trump's hard-headed realism has thus far restricted the Iranian regime's nuclear ambitions, reduced its expansionist power, and deterred its aggression. The president should not abandon that course in favor of emotive rhetoric that risks unnecessary conflict.

U.S. threats to crush Iran and North Korea may yet work, but as of now neither Tehran nor Pyongyang appears to be intimidated. Where, then, are we headed? Surely, a partial, verifiable nuclear disarmament of North Korea is preferable to war on the peninsula. And, surely, a new nuclear deal with Iran with restrictions on missiles is preferable to war in the Gulf. Again, we cannot make the perfect the enemy of the good.

In both the Iran deal and a potential North Korea deal, the United States has enormous leverage — and it should never forget that fact. Global sanctions can wreck the relatively small and vulnerable Iranian and North Korean economies. Even American sanctions alone and the ripples from them can injure Tehran and Pyongyang. The U.S. can also deter Iran and North Korea in a variety of other ways. For all their obnoxious bluster, the rogue governments of North Korea and Iran are more vulnerable than ever.

The U.S. is at war in Yemen. Special Forces are on the ground in Saudi Arabia, while Washington is providing Riyadh’s military with munitions, targeting assistance, and aerial refueling. All to bomb a nation whose people have done nothing against Americans.

President Trump has made the right decision to take us out of the Obama nuclear weapons deal by reimposing sanctions on Iran and assembling a broad coalition to counter the totality of the regime’s malign activities. However, those “malign activities” are not things that only occur in the Middle East, Iran is conducting a war against us right here in the United States and fighting them here needs to be part of the President's new policy.

The Constitution gives the war-making power to Congress, not the executive branch. "Promising war by tweet, insults not only the Constitution but every soldier who puts their life on the line,” Senator Rand Paul tweeted, referring to President Trump’s tweet singling out Russia for chemical weapons attacks in Syria.

Criticisms of the appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor have been strongly rebutted by a long list of national defense conservatives who reject the idea that everyone who wants to rebuild the military Obama intentionally hollowed out should automatically be dismissed as a “neocon.”

Despite working with the Kurds against ISIS, the administration has no stomach for a military game of chicken with Turkey. Which means the U.S. almost certainly would abandon the Kurds again if the Turks attack Manbij.

Washington’s relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is embarrassing, counterproductive, and unnecessary. The Kingdom is as much foe as friend of American principles and interests. The U.S. should tell the Saudis that in the future it will deal with the Kingdom when convenient, without any pretense of friendship.

If our goal is to block Iran’s aspirations in Syria, but neither the United States nor Israel has been able to stop the proliferation of Iranian bases in Syria, then it looks to us like we, and the Israelis, are losing. The question for Gen. Votel and other commanders then becomes, if we are presently losing, what’s it going to take to win?

“I think the Afghan war is long past its mission. I think we killed and captured and disrupted the people who attacked us on 9/11 long ago. And I think now it's a nation building exercise... I think after 15 years and a trillion dollars that it's time for them to take over their country.” Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is promoting economic opportunity and social modernity, while seeking regional military hegemony. During the Cold War Washington’s close embrace of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia made a certain strategic sense. Today, a far more limited, arms-length relationship with what remains an intolerant and repressive power is needed.

Among the reasons U.S. foreign policy lacks consistency and moral clarity is that we Americans no longer agree on what our vital interests are, who our real adversaries are, what our values are, or what a good and Godly country looks like. Now that a worldwide conversion to democracy is no longer America’s mission in the world, what exactly is our mission?

January 12 is just over a week from today, but that’s plenty of time for the President to make a major policy statement in support of the Iranian people, and to put in motion the actions necessary to support them in their desire to rid themselves of the corrupt mullahs now stifling their liberty – and threatening our own national security.

Obama never lost faith in his own powers of persuasion. He carried throughout his presidency a naive belief, despite abundant evidence to the contrary, that all regimes are ultimately driven by the desire for prosperity, peace, and security. That the Iranian regime’s desires are nothing of the sort is now on full display. The whole world is watching, and President Trump would do well to learn from his predecessor’s appalling errors.

The internet was once hailed as the ultimate channel for free expression and democratizing the world, but the worldwide web’s promise of unlimited free expression is being quickly eroded by the alliance between political tyrants anxious to retain their power and digital tyrants anxious to retain their power – and make money.

Are we now to fight a new Mideast war against a larger enemy than any of the others we have fought before, to clean up the bloody mess we made of the region by our previous military interventions? Before we march, with Haley as head cheerleader, Trump should consider the likely consequences for his country, the Middle East, and his presidency.