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Bright Future for Republican Senate Candidates?

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With the national mood souring against the shady dealings of the Obama administration in Washington, Republican Senate candidates appear to be enjoying the benefits of voter antipathy.

Republicans are gaining despite the national GOP’s refusal to make the election about the issues that Americans care about the most, namely amnesty, national security and the Obama-created Democratic culture of corruption and lies that permeates today’s political environment.

Eric Holder’s announced resignation and the Secret Service scandal being only the most recent examples of Obama’s incompetency and depravity.

The voters are angry and are turning to Republicans as the potential answer. Conservatives must continue to push Republicans to champion their issues, but it looks increasingly likely that the GOP will pick up enough seats to take over the Senate.

The usually reliable FiveThiryEightPolitics now gives the Republicans a 59.3% chance of winning a majority on November 4th. Dan MacLaughlin of RedState also sees a rosy picture for Republicans, noting that GOP Senate candidates have made up ground in all but two races.

Below is a brief look at the most contested races, including the most recent polling averages:

Likely Republican:

Montana (Open D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Steve Daines +19.0
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Likely GOP
538 rates this race as R+20, giving Republicans a 99% chance of a pick-up.
Republican Steve Daines has maintained a sizeable lead in this race where incumbent Democratic Senator John Walsh pulled out as the result of a plagiarism scandal.

West Virginia (Open D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Shelley Moore Capito +19.0
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Likely GOP
538 rates this race as R+16, giving Republicans a 97% chance of a pick-up.
Republican Shelley Moore Capito is cruising in coal country as West Virginia turns against the disastrous environmental policies of the Democrats.

South Dakota (Open D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Mike Rounds has +12.6 in a three-way race.
Real Clear Politics Ranking: None
538 rates this race as R+14, giving Republicans a 94% chance of a pick-up.
The presence of former Republican Senator Larry Pressler in a three-way race is complicating the overall picture in South Dakota, though it looks like Mike Rounds is a heavy favorite to win.

Leaning Republican:

Kentucky (R)
Real Clear Politics Average: Mitch McConnell +5.3
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Leans GOP
538 rates this race as R+5, giving Republicans an 81% chance of retaining the seat.
Sen. Mitch McConnell is running a strong campaign based on conservative issues, allowing him to open a sizeable margin against his opponent.

Georgia (Open R)
Real Clear Politics Average:  David Perdue +3.4
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as R+3, giving Republicans a 72% chance of retaining the seat.
Polls show a steady movement towards Republican David Perdue. Though still rated as a toss-up, it’s looking more like a Republican retention.

Arkansas (D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Tom Cotton +3.6
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as R+3, giving Republicans a 72% chance of a pick-up.
Republican Tom Cotton is hitting the Democrats hard on national security issues, resulting in a consistent lead in polls. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Pryor is polling in the mid-40s. We’ll put this one in our Leans Republican category.

Alaska (D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Dan Sullivan +4.7
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as R+3, giving Republicans a 70% chance of a pick-up.
Another race rated a toss-up that we will include in the Leans Republican category. Incumbent Democratic Senator Begich’s polling numbers can’t rise out of the low 40s. Together with polling indicating a growing lead for Republican Dan Sullivan, and it’s looking good for the GOP in Palin-country.

Louisiana (D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Bill Cassidy +4.6
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as R+4, giving Republicans a 71% chance of a pick-up.
Republican Bill Cassidy still appears to be heading for a run-off (there is another Republican in the race, Rob Maness), but most indicators point to a Republican ultimately taking this seat in Louisiana.

Toss-up, but moving towards Republicans

Colorado (D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Cory Gardner +1.5
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as R+1, giving Republicans a 56% chance of a pick-up.
Questions remain concerning the character of incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and his poll numbers remain mired in the mid-40s. Meanwhile, Republican Cory Gardner has developed a small lead.

Iowa (Open D)
Real Clear Politics Average:  Joni Ernst +2.8
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as R+1, giving Republicans a 57% chance of a pick-up.
Another nationally rated toss-up race moving towards the Republican, Joni Ernst. According to news reports, the race remains volatile, so we’ll keep it in the moving Republican category.

New Hampshire (D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Jeanne Shaheen +4.0
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as D+3, giving Democrats a 79% chance of retaining the seat.
Although the Vox Populi poll shows Brown ahead, incumbent Democratic Sen. Shaheen maintains a lead in most polls, though some do indicate a statistical deadlock, including this poll from the New England College Polling Center. Don’t give up hope on this one – Scott Brown is running a strong campaign on solid conservative issues and it’s far from over.

Looking Blue, But Could Turn


Michigan (Open D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Gary Peters +3.8
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as D+4, giving Democrats an 81% chance of retaining the seat.
Polls seem to indicate the race is tightening, with Republican Terri Lynn Land making up ground on the Democratic frontrunner (Peters). A high percentage of undecided voters gives Republicans some hope if a national wave develops.

North Carolina (D)
Real Clear Politics Average: Kay Hagan +4.2
Real Clear Politics Ranking: Toss Up
538 rates this race as D+4, giving Democrats a 80% chance of retaining the seat.
Conservatives agree that Republican Thom Tillis is running a weak campaign, and poll numbers seem to bolster that belief. North Carolina is highly winnable if Tillis would only pound on the national themes and brand Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan for the Obama-esque liberal that she is.

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REPUBLICAN VICTORY

Any republican who cannot defeat a Democrat in this election or in 2016 is too STUPID even to be a public servant! Even the Democrats are running against Democratic, with a capital D, principles and practices!