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Presidential Horse Race 2016: Answering #NeverTrump’s honest question on how Trump will win

It’s often said there are only two things that are certain in life, those being death and taxes.

But just a few days ahead of the opening of the Republican convention in Cleveland, another thing that appears certain is some sort of takeover attempt to be made by the forces of #NeverTrump, who seem determined to Trump buttonsdisrupt the festivities next week regardless of their extremely long odds of success.

David M. Drucker of the Washington Examiner reports, “Against Trump is a grassroots coalition of delegates, as well as an outside political group that has set up a war room in downtown Cleveland. They are contacting delegates directly and via social media.

“These anti-Trump forces are waging an intense effort to educate delegates about how they could move on the floor of the convention to dump the presumptive nominee and elevate an alternative.”

There’s only one problem with their efforts: hardly anyone wants to join them.

Now I’m not privy to the private discussions of the Republican delegates, but if there was a large and successful dump-Trump coup likely to take place next week, someone in the media would have sniffed it out and reported on it.

One crucial piece of the effort to wrest the nomination away from the candidate who won over 1500 delegates in the primaries occurs today in the meeting of the convention Rules Committee, where a group called “Free the Delegates” will attempt to round up 28 (out of 112) members to sign a “minority report” to unbind all of the convention’s delegates.

If successful, the question of “voting your conscience” would formally be introduced next Monday for a full vote of the convention delegates.

“Free the Delegates” leaders swear they have the 28 votes necessary to further their cause in the Rules Committee. Other independent tallies indicate they have no more than 20. And even if there happens to be 28 votes today, the Trump campaign believes they have more than enough committed delegates to defeat the measure and assure his nomination on the first ballot (as a reminder, you need 1237 to be nominated).

In reading about the numerous plots to take down Trump beginning before the primary season even started, the one thing that’s struck me is how futile each and every one of them turned out to be after the fact. Hindsight is always 20-20, but time after time the anti-Trump forces have underestimated the mood of the electorate and the capabilities of Trump himself as a candidate practically since he announced his intention to run over a year ago.

I’m afraid these last ditch attempts will share a similar fate as the others and only end up making those who are behind them look foolish. These folks can advance their “we’re just employing our democratic right to object” arguments all they want, but now they basically look like a bunch of whiners and sore losers.

Speaking of whiners and sore losers, National Review’s David French is continuing his own personal anti-Trump crusade right up until the bitter end, though it’s not clear exactly what he hopes to gain by it.

Despite the great weight of evidence in the primaries (through vote counts) to the contrary, French argues Trump is not an effective answer for those looking to defeat the type of political correctness that’s eating away at our American culture.

He writes, “Make no mistake, Trump is not beating political correctness; he’s feeding it. Every single time he insults women, attacks a judge for his Mexican heritage, passes on anti-Semitic images created by white supremacists, or indulges any of the other truly offensive reflexes that his fans celebrate as proof of his ‘fearlessness,’ he is doing nothing more than providing the fuel for yet another decade’s politically correct fire. And by tying the GOP to his own unreason and disregard for the truth, he’s yanking from the Party of Lincoln its best tools for combating progressive narratives.”

French, of course, was rumored to be the man willing to run against Trump and Hillary under the #NeverTrump banner, the “savior” disgruntled Republicans like Bill Kristol argued would be well financed and well supported by the supposedly over half of Republicans who’ve said in polls they would have preferred someone else as the nominee.

I myself would have preferred Ted Cruz (so doesn’t that make me part of that more than 50 percent number?), but he didn’t win. I now support Trump because he’s clearly a better candidate than Hillary Clinton and at the very least would present a refreshing change to a political system that desperately needs one.

French didn’t win the nomination through the GOP primary process and neither did Mitt Romney (this year, at least), John Kasich or any of the other “White Knight” candidates the #NeverTrump movement would put forward.

Next week’s convention coup will fail, simply because there isn’t the popular support to sustain it. In the process, “Free the Delegates” and folks like French are going to end up pushed to the side of the road like defeated soldiers who won’t surrender yet don’t have any battles left to fight. The army has moved on and yet the grunts still wander in bewilderment.

And then we’ll see what they do after the convention. Stay tuned.

Answering Erick Erickson’s honest question on Trump

In what has become an almost daily ritual, I feel compelled to comment on a post from #NeverTrumper Erick Erickson. This time Erickson actually suspended his usual Trump diatribes in order to pose an honest question for supporters of Donald Trump.

Fair enough. It’s a question worth answering, too.

Erickson writes in The Resurgent, “I’m honestly curious to know what Trump Republicans see as his path to victory. All I hear is ‘he is not Hillary.’ And they are right. He has higher negatives, worse polling, less party loyalty, less money, and more states on defense. To win he must hold all of Romney’s states with 206 electoral college votes and find 64 more electoral college votes. Even if Trump wins all of Romney’s states and wins Pennsylvania and Florida, he would still lose to Clinton and on top of that he is more likely than not going to lose North Carolina while having to spend resources just to play defense in Arizona and Missouri.

“So strategically, how does Trump win?”

Erickson goes on to add the answer he usually hears from Trump supporters is “the polling is wrong.” I won’t offer that one, because I believe the pollsters are mostly correct. Hillary likely has a slight lead at this stage, which also brings me to my main point.

Trump will win because the evidence indicates Americans are about to turn the status quo on its head.

I’m not going to bother poring over specific poll numbers to bolster my assertion. I’m no Nate Silver and even if I was capable of setting up charts and graphs full of original data they probably wouldn’t portray what I’m trying to say very accurately.

Donald Trump continues to poll behind Clinton right now, in July, because the electorate remains in a holding pattern similar to where they are in every election cycle over three and a half months out from Election Day. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to stay there.

Trump wins in November for several reasons:

One, people will realize closer to the time to vote that there are really only two choices, so many of those who are persuadable will go against the establishment when it counts. These are the “late deciders” pollsters talk about in every election, the ones who typically vote for change.

This year the forces pushing for change are particularly strong as we have rotten economic conditions to go along with years of anger built up against the cultural changes fostered by politicians in the Democrat Party who are throwing favors to their constituents at the expense of everyone else.

Similarly, the establishment leadership of the Republican Party has allowed these changes to occur without offering much opposition. Trump represents the anti-establishment in this election and it will make a difference. Therefore, a vote for Trump is almost like a vote against BOTH parties.

Two, Trump will win because Republicans will rally around him after the convention.

Up until next week there was at least a chance Donald Trump would be removed as the nominee, so some Republicans likely felt they’d keep up the appearance of opposition until the threshold has been unalterably crossed.

That moment will occur next week and these same people will see there’s nothing left to fight for…and perhaps begin to realize at the same time that Trump maybe isn’t as bad as they thought.

Three, Trump wins because voters will realize there’s a legacy candidate involved here and Hillary Clinton is truly a lying, substance-free empty pantsuit who wouldn’t be anything special today without the success of her philandering good ‘ol boy husband Bill who can basically sell ice to Eskimos.

She’s also a career criminal who skated the system and her email problems will stick to her like bugs in a roach motel.

Four, the polling isn’t as bad as Erickson makes it out to be. The fact Trump is only behind by a few points after the waves of negativity the media’s been throwing out at him indicates the bottom has been reached and there’s nowhere to go but up. We can’t say the same for Hillary, who only seems to prove Trump right in calling her “Crooked” with each new revelation.

People aren’t dumb – or at least some non-Democrats aren’t. They’ll come around.

And if the recent polls are wrong in any way, it’s because people may be afraid to “admit” to anyone they support Trump for fear of a backlash. With all of the violence going on around us, that’s a real concern.

Lastly and perhaps most importantly, Trump will win because these are unstable times. Every election there are people claiming, “This is the most important election of our lifetimes.” While it may still have been true four years ago, it’s even more so now. Barack Obama has successfully transformed America into something that’s almost unrecognizable to anyone over the age of 30.

Those of us who remember the days before cell phones, the internet and social media recall a time when culture helped bind us together rather than tear us into little tiny pieces by those supporting same-sex marriage, transgender friendly bathrooms and unlimited illegal immigration and the Mexican flag waving that goes along with it.

It used to be you could have an opinion and not face an instantaneous barrage of abuse by culturally liberal onlookers who are all too willing to label you “intolerant” or a “racist” if you dare express your beliefs outside of your person and the politically correct norm.

To steal a quote Tim McGraw, “I miss back when”.

There were tremendous backlashes against these forces in the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014 and I think you’re going to see it again this year with a candidate like Trump, who may be rough around the edges and a little hard to like but offers a distinct new direction apart from an establishment that’s run the country into the ground.

It may be only four or five percent of the voting population making the switch, but that’s more than enough to deliver a convincing national victory for Trump.

So Erick, those are the reasons Trump will win…and it’s not because the polling is wrong. It’s because enough Americans will wake up one day and realize they don’t want another dose of Obama and his ilk.

Rush Limbaugh predicted Trump will win in a Reagan-like landslide. I won’t go that far, but I don’t think November will be as close as people think. The mood of the public outside the beltway isn’t the same as the elite class thinks it is. Take a drive to the country and visit a small town – and then tell me Trump can’t win. There may be more votes per square mile packed in the inner cities, but there are a lot more square miles outside of those cities.

Hillary will get the city dwellers who can’t or won’t vote for change no matter how bad things get…but Trump gets everyone else. That will be the difference.

Trump takes the lead in swing-state polls, momentum definitely on his side

Just as I get through arguing polls don’t matter at this stage comes news Donald Trump has taken the lead in key swing states according to a new survey.

Steven Shepard and Nick Gass of Politico report, “Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

“New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.”

As exciting and potentially game-changing as these results would tend to suggest, it’s still only July and time and events will have some bearing on the final numbers on Election Day.

But there’s no denying that Trump is moving in the right direction in the rust belt and perhaps other places too.

Without expanding on the obvious, I think these polls are just the start of a trend you’ll see all across the country in the next month or so. As Trump improves in polls in various places, it’s going to be “okay” to back him in others.

Hillary has hit her ceiling. Trump can only go up. The political establishment and media will spin like crazy to deny what’s going on…but we’re not fooled.

Sean Hannity personally flies Newt Gingrich to see Trump

Finally today, I’ve avoided the Trump VP speculation because there’s so much out there and it’s getting pretty wild and crazy concerning who’s in the lead and who’s out.

But this tidbit was too good to resist.

Joe Concha of The Hill reports, “Fox News host Sean Hannity on Wednesday flew Newt Gingrich to Indiana on a private jet to meet with Donald Trump, CNN is reporting.

“Hannity, who has openly advocated for Gingrich to be Trump’s vice president, was also on the flight, the report said.”

There’s been no one in the media that’s been a bigger Trump fan than Sean Hannity, so it’s not surprising the Fox host would feel welcome to pull such a stunt and be granted access to The Donald himself.

Of course, others are saying Mike Pence is certain to be the guy…or Chris Christie (which would be a total disaster). If you’re listening, don’t do it, Donald.

Trump has said he’ll announce his choice on Friday…but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the news gets out a day early.

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