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We Don't Know Whether Perot Cost Bush in 1992

Sean Trende, Real Clear Politics

While Perot might have had an equal impact from a popular vote perspective, he did not necessarily have an equal impact from an electoral perspective.  He probably did flip states like Montana and Nevada to Clinton; his impact in larger Midwestern states is harder to gauge. Of course, the popular vote was a five-point Clinton win, and if Perot really did draw evenly between the two it seems extremely unlikely that Bush was going to win the Electoral College under any circumstances, even if Perot likely did cost Bush a few electoral votes. Presidents who win a majority in the Electoral College are the presidents, period, and they are no less legitimate if a third party candidate does play spoiler.