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Coronavirus Is Killing Off Government By ‘Experts’

Is anyone else tired of government by “experts” and ready for a return to government of the people, by the people and for the people? We certainly are.

Fortunately, there appears to be some prospect of lifting that burden, because next to the sniveling snowflakes of the White House press corps and the much-reviled hoarders of toilet paper, no other class of Americans has lost more credibility with their fellow citizens than the now completely discredited “experts” on epidemiology.

And it isn’t just that their recommendations on social distancing are self-evident and have been known since at least the 17th century plague that hit London, England. It is that their “models,” that have destroyed the lives of millions, have been spectacularly off.

As Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson ) and Yossi Gestetner (@YossiGestetner) documented in separate threads on Twitter, “models” are not “scientific.” They are based on back-end data and assumption that humans enter or fail to enter. And in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic models they failed spectacularly!

As Mr. Gestetner pointed out on March 24th, barely two weeks ago, the “experts” were saying 2.5% of the US (not just of cases) could die of COVID-19 this year.

The next day Mr. Gestetner reported via tweet:

Cuomo says he needs 30,000 ICU beds. Considering that 12.5% of known NY cases need hospital and 3% of known cases need ICU, he is expecting

1 mill cases

125,000 (12.5%) hospitalizations

30,000 (3%) of the 1 million cases in ICU.

All of those within the same few days. ????

Yesterday, in a tweet exchange with Brit Hume of Fox News, Mr. Gestetner revisited those two-week-old models:

The fact is, two weeks ago Monday, NY was expecting needing 30,000 ICU beds by this week. I showed at the time that it makes no sense. IHME’s (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) models showed Thursday 3/26, that a week later NY will need 10,900 ICUs at a time when the total ICU count was a few thousand, and was going up by only 340 a day. IHME was essentially expecting the ICU count to pop one day to the next from an average of 340 into a daily average of 1,300. I tweeted at the time that it’s wrong. When 4/2 came around and NY was under 3,800, IHME simply pushed back the peak to this week Thursday and showed that there will be a need of 12,000 ICU beds despite having another week of ICUs growing by a fraction of what would be needed to actually pop from 3,700 to almost 12,000 in a week! This was the daily ICU rise in NY recently:

172 Fri 3/27/20

282 Sat

315 Sun

367 Mon

303 Tues

374 Wed 4/1/20

335 Thur

395 Fri

250 Sat

128 Sun 4/5/20

Despite this, IHME’s kept to its 11K - 12K projection, first for 4/2 and then for 4/9. No, not 5 weeks ago. Days away!

5/7 As late as this week Sunday April 5th midday, IHME still projected NY will need almost 12,000 ICU beds despite the fact that that total ICU count in recent days was:

2,352 Sun 3/29/20

2,719 Mon

3,022 Tuesday

3,396 Wed 4/1/20

3,731 Thurs

4,126 Fri

4,376 Sat

6/7 Finally yesterday they cut it to NY needing 6,664 ICUs in a few days. Defenders of the models say “well, it takes time to update.” No! Not when the US is locked down due to you and not when NY, the state used by IHME to shape nationwide models, releases info daily!

And as Mr. Berenson (a former New York Times reporter) pointed out in an April 5th Tweet:

The @IHME_UW  model vs reality for New York State, April 5. The model is less accurate than ever. 69K beds projected, 16.5K actually needed; 12,346 ICU beds projected, 4376 needed. Even better (tho not for the model), overall bed count rose less than 600 statewide - less than 4%.

He elaborated further yesterday in two tweets:

Incredible but true: less than 36 hours after it was reconfigured and re-released, the @IHME_UW  model has blown up again.


Great new NY state data: (hospitalizations tend to rise some on Mondays, but the trend is still clear). Net intubations rose by less than 100, down 80% since Friday! A fantastic day for reality, a terrible day for Team Apocalypse.

Alicia Smith (@Alicia_Smith19), US and European political analyst for Bravo TV, who has one of the better threads on the IHME model updates, offered this trenchant observation about models, “It's important to remember that models are not oracles…” that’s true, and neither are the so-called experts.

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