Social media has been awash in posts promoting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s campaign for the Democrat nomination for President, but is the campaign real and does it pose a threat to Joe Biden’s reelection?
The short answer to the first question is YES, it is definitely real.
The biggest “tell” that RFK Jr’s campaign is real was pointed out in a newsletter from our friend Rick Manning, President of Americans for Limited Government, a guy we respect for his political insights and savvy.
As Rick’s team member Manzanita Miller noted in a recent column for ALG’s must read “Daily Torch” the establishment media – always a good barometer of Democrat opinion – has already begun to deploy against RFK Jr.
When Kennedy announced his run for office, he did not mention vaccines, but has been clear in interviews that if asked, he’ll share his views. He has also stated that vaccines are not the central focus of his campaign, but the establishment is attempting to ‘other’ Kennedy on the vaccine issue to dissuade voters who might agree with him on other issues.
This is, observed Ms. Miller, exactly what the political establishment did when Donald Trump announced.
Much like Trump, Kennedy is already being appended with an array of loaded political labels, the sole purpose of which are to make it crystal clear to the political elite that Kennedy is, ‘not one of us.’
The political dynasty and environmental lawyer is rarely referred to as anything other than an “anti-vaccine activist”, despite also being vocally anti-war and highly critical of crony corporatism and environmental neglect.
The gatekeepers of the political establishment are never going to make the mistake of allowing an anti-establishment candidacy to go forward without being attacked ad hominem because, as Ms. Miller explained, “…much like with Hillary Clinton in 2016, the political establishment are aware that any argument for their candidate falls flat. The only alternative is to label and discredit the opponent.”
So, even though Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is the scion of a revered Democratic Party dynasty the Democrats and their media allies are never going to credit his ideas and debate him – they are planning to simply dismiss and, if necessary, destroy him, just like they’ve been doing to Trump for eight years.
Now, on to the question of whether RFK, Jr.’s candidacy poses a threat to Joe Biden’s reelection.
As Ms. Miller documented, Biden’s approval rating now hovers in the low 40’s, a place occupied by former presidents who lost their reelection bids, and he has lost support by double-digits with women, young people, and independents. Unsurprisingly, Kennedy does well in polls with all these groups.
Around 70% of Democrats say they want someone other than Joe Biden to become the party nominee in 2024, and these numbers are even higher with young people and independents.
Not only are Biden’s numbers down across the board, but Americans are increasingly seeking a president who will keep the U.S. out of foreign conflicts and reject a neoconservative nation-building agenda abroad.
All of these are winning positions in a fair stand-up mano a mano primary election, so the national Democrat Party establishment have made it clear there will be no debates or any other joint appearances between Joe Biden and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
So, if Kennedy is going to do more than emulate his uncle Teddy’s abortive campaign against Jimmy Carter – a failed Democrat president whose polls were about the same, maybe better, than Joe Biden’s he’s going to have to do it through grassroots organizing and viral marketing – he will get no help from the Leftwing media or any significant organized members of the traditional Democratic Party coalition.
Can he do it?
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. voters view RFK Jr. favorably, including 19% who have a Very Favorable impression of him. Thirty-one percent (31%) view Kennedy unfavorably, including 15% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Another 15% are not sure.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Democrats, 61% of Republicans and 48% of voters not affiliated with either major party have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of RFK Jr. Kennedy’s favorability is much higher than another announced Democratic challenger, author Marianne Williamson, who is viewed favorably by just 26% of Likely Voters and 33% of Democrats.
However, in a three-way contest for the 2024 Democratic nomination between Biden, Kennedy and Williamson, 62% of Democrats would vote for Biden, 19% for RFK Jr., and four percent (4%) for Williamson. Six percent (6%) of Democrats would vote for some other candidate and 10% are undecided.
RFK, Jr. has a start and a base – and some surprisingly favorable numbers among voters who lean Republican, but that’s only a start against an entrenched opposition willing to deploy any means (and we mean ANY means) necessary to defeat any candidate who opposes Washington, DC’s Uniparty orthodoxy.
2024 Democrat primaries
Joe Biden reelection
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Democrat primary polls
opposition to Ukraine war