Multiple public opinion surveys have been conducted after the news leaked that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s politically motivated grand jury had voted to indict former President Donald Trump.
The counterintuitive results demonstrate that far from removing Trump from the 2024 presidential equation, Bragg’s witch hunt may very well have wrapped-up the GOP nomination for the former President.
According to respected pollster John McLaughlin, President Trump received a significant increase over his opponents in full-field and one-on-one primary election ballot tests, while his decisive lead over Joe Biden in a general election ballot test remains level.
Additionally, McLaughlin found a majority of general election voters now see the attacks on President Trump as making things worse and dividing the country while ignoring real issues, and a plurality of general election voters think the justice system has been weaponized against President Trump.
General election voters replying that the indictment news would make them “more likely” to vote for President Trump have a 13-point advantage over those replying that the indictment news would make them “less likely” to vote for President Trump.
Among The Key Findings Were:
* In a full-field ballot test of 14 potential Republican candidates, President Trump leads with 51%, DeSantis 21%, Mike Pence 6%, Nikki Haley 4%, and everyone else is at 2% or less. In our January survey, President Trump led the field with 43%, and DeSantis was at 31%. Trump’s lead has gone from 12 points to 30 points.
* In a one-on-one primary ballot test, President Trump beats Governor DeSantis 63% to 30%. Trump’s lead is up to 33 points from his January lead of 12 points (52% to 40%).
* Among Republican primary voters, including independents who vote in Republican primaries, 65% want President Trump to run again. This is up from 58% in January.
* Republican primary voters clearly prefer President Trump as their strongest candidate to beat Joe Biden. Republican primary voters say Trump is better positioned to beat Joe Biden at 61% vs. 33% who prefer someone else.
* 71% of general election voters say the country is on the wrong track, up from 65% in our March survey. 69% of general election voters say the Country has gone backward in the past two years.
* In a general election ballot test, President Trump leads Joe Biden 47-43. This number is virtually unchanged from our March 2023 survey.
* Most general election voters see the justice system being highly politicized. A plurality of voters, 48%, agree with the statement “Joe Biden and the radical left have weaponized the justice system to prosecute their political opponents.” Only 39% disagreed. Republican primary voters agreed with this statement 82% to 11%.
* Notably, a majority of general election voters surveyed see a double standard of justice where the Biden family corruption escapes investigation and President Trump is charged. The majority of voters, 55%, agree with the statement “Under President Biden there is a double standard of criminal justice where the alleged Hunter Biden and Biden family corruption escapes indictments while President Trump is continually investigated looking for crimes to prosecute him.” Only 33% of all voters disagreed. Republican primary voters agreed with this statement 85% to 10%.
* For most general election voters, the Manhattan DA’s indictment appears rigged against President Trump. Only 37% of all voters say President Trump can get a fair trial in Manhattan, while 47% say it will not be a fair trial. Among Republican primary voters, only 18% say that Trump can get a fair trial in Manhattan, with 72% of respondents saying it will not be a fair trial.
The Hill’s Jared Gans reported a Yahoo News-YouGov poll taken after the grand jury approved the indictment against Trump found the former president holding a 31-point lead over his next closest potential GOP rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with 52 percent of the vote. DeSantis came in second with 21 percent, followed by former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley with 5 percent and former Vice President Mike Pence with 3 percent.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads DeSantis by 26 points, 57 percent to 31 percent, while 12 percent said they were not sure, reported Mr. Gans.
However, a Morning Consult poll conducted immediately after the news of the indictment leaked was not all favorable to former President Trump.
Republicans overwhelmingly still think Trump should run: Two in 3 Republican voters say Trump should run for president, nearly unchanged from a Morning Consult survey conducted in early March. However, among the overall electorate, 58% say Trump should shut down his campaign, including 60% of independents and 84% of Democrats.
What’s more, Trump’s own fueling of speculation about his indictment earlier this month before he was indicted did nothing to shake his status as the GOP’s presidential front-runner, and he continued to poll close to President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general-election matchup, according to Morning Consult’s 2024 GOP Primary Tracker.
The Morning Consult survey shows that Trump’s attacks resonate with the Republican base, and the news cycle on the indictment, which has percolated for weeks, has yet to shake his standing among Republican voters, similarly to what happened after the FBI raided his Mar-a-Lago home as part of a separate federal investigation into his handling of classified documents.
What do you think? Does Trump’s indictment make you more or less likely to support to support Donald Trump for President?
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg
George Soros prosecutors
Stormy Daniels scandal
Donald Trump indictment
Democrat Attorney General Leticia James
Michael D. Cohen
Federal Election Commission
Attorney Mike Davis