With the 2024 Republican presidential primary race practically decided by the end of January, it’s curious to see how the establishment media is already beginning to feature “Trump is in big trouble” type stories in advance of the bound-to-be-historically-nasty
general election campaign between Donald Trump and president senile Joe Biden.
Many signs point to Trump having momentum going into the rematch. But if you listen to the professional politics talkers, you’d think no one likes the former president – or is planning to support him this fall, no matter what he or senile Joe does.
In an article titled “Donald Trump has a big problem ahead”, Sam Stein and Natalie Allison reported at Politico before New Hampshire voted last Tuesday:
“Trump is not making his pitch to voters as a first time candidate. He is a known quantity who is being judged by the electorate not for the conduct of his current campaign so much as his time in office. And that, political veterans warn, makes it much harder for him to win back the people he’s alienated, including those once willing to vote Republican.
“The data supports the idea that there are problems ahead for the former president. Even before the Iowa survey, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that — including independents who say they lean toward one party over the other — Biden had slightly more support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91 percent) than Trump did among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent) …
“’I don’t think I can vote for Trump,’ he said. ‘I vote in every election, I’ve never left a box blank. And I might have to this time.’ That sentiment was not uncommon among Republicans here this week, especially among voters who came out to see Haley, the former U.N. ambassador. ‘I liked him. But he just scares me now. Everybody that has ever worked for him is not any more,’ said Lisa Tracy, of Salem. If it came down to Biden versus Trump, she said, ‘I would go with Biden.’”
If there truly are people who fit the description of the folks quoted in the Politico writers’ piece, they never were Republicans – or leaners – to begin with. The gist of the article suggested that a high percentage of Nikki Haley’s “independent” voters would choose the incumbent if the general election comes down to Trump vs. Biden, which makes her backers somewhat of a breed apart from nearly all conservatives who just want, well, the government to protect rights and freedoms like the Constitution spells out for it to do.
Who are Haley’s voters, anyway?
Examining the mindset of the average Haley voter, one likely notices they have at least a handful of characteristics in common: First and foremost, they aren’t full spectrum political conservatives and never were.
When Donald Trump first burst onto the political scene in the summer of 2015 and almost immediately rocketed to the top of the 2016 primary polls (replacing Jeb Bush, among others), no one quite knew how to accept the new balance of power in the Republican party. Most principled conservatives, I believe, rejected Trump as a flash-in-the-pan celebrity-type candidate who drew attention by saying outrageous things and making outlandish promises about changing the culture in Washington, displacing the establishment, bringing the government back to the people, etc.
One thing Trump didn’t do was make a series of commitments to be deferential to the GOP ruling class and to play nice with the party’s elders, including the Bush family, nor vow to maintain the wishy-washy establishment’s agenda for the foreseeable future. Trump substituted real policy issues (illegal immigration, fair trade, no more “stupid” wars, etc.) for the warmed- over sludge that the conciliators had been serving for decades, which never ended up fostering comity between the parties and resulted in policy loss after policy loss.
True conservatives appreciated Trump for being a “message carrier” and identifying the realistic nature of the issues, but were circumspect of his background, both political and personal. And they were concerned that he was a fiscal liberal who would just promote big government in his own way if he ever got to the White House.
Principled conservatives did join Trump after he became the sole choice in the binary election against Crooked Hillary Clinton. Where else was there to go? If we were bent on reining in government, Trump was the one. Sitting out was absurd, and the “Never Trump” holdouts are at a crossroads again.
Second, the Nikki Haley-or-bust folks can’t take yes for an answer.
A year or so ago when the former Trump U.N. ambassador announced her candidacy, she mumbled something about needing a new generation of leaders, touted her status as a biological female and promptly took after Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s ages, making headlines by claiming all politicians over the age of 75 needed to be screened for cognitive function. Why 75? Is that a magic number?
At any rate, most of Trump’s policy proposals fall in line with Haley’s except for the latter’s emphasis on shipping more billions overseas to keep the Ukrainians and Russians fighting and killing each other in perpetuity over what Ron DeSantis once (correctly) described as a “territorial dispute”. The argument that Putin is just warming up to take over all of NATO is flat out unrealistic. Look at the statistics, Nikki. A proxy war is still a proxy war.
So Haley’s backers are getting most of what they want, but they’d have to accept it under the Trump MAGA banner. The same goes for almost all of Never Trump, except for the old Weekly Standard (which folded, of course) crowd that’s permanently severed their allegiance to the GOP and now love Joe Biden because he’s a firm believer in the DC War Party.
Nikki’s crew just doesn’t like Trump, and it mostly goes back to his allegedly being “unpresidential” and his belief in putting Americans’ interests first rather than adhering to the dream of the United States being a global “democracy” spreading engine. What a farce.
Third, if there is such a thing as an “identity politics” voter in the Republican party, they’re now in it hook, line and sinker for Nikki Haley.
“We need to get the suburban white women’s votes back!” Yeah, these are the so-called soccer moms who actually (or supposedly) think that a “woman’s touch” will make the planet a better place. Trump is too mean, too gruff, too ruined by his womanizing past and too off-putting to see him as an effective chief executive, and they surmise Nikki’s womanhood would be the magic solution.
Would the fact that Haley is a woman make a difference along the southern border? Wasn’t cackling Kamala Harris essentially put in charge there because she’s female (and was chosen to be vice president)? Could Nikki stare Congress down and perhaps pow-wow with Nancy Pelosi, AOC and the other gals to “get stuff done”?
While it maybe would be nice to have a woman president, it’s not a prerequisite to success. Lady Margaret Thatcher succeeded because she was iron tough, not because she had “qualities” that would allow her to throw a good tea party. Identity politics is for Democrats.
Fourth, Haley voters are the loose hangers-on of the oldest of Never Trump coalitions, the ones who already journeyed through the five stages of grief in 2016, finally hitched their wagon to John Kasich, joined with Cindy McCain and other half-hearted liberal Republicans to back Joe Biden in 2020 and haven’t learned a thing from the policy horrors of the past few years.
A token few of them have found jobs acting as “Republican commentators” on liberal cable news networks or have worked Trump-hating GOP mega-donors to start up their own advocacy shops touting “moderation” and “bipartisan cooperation”. They may get a candidate or two elected every cycle but they’ll never amount to anything.
What’s John Kasich doing these days, anyway? He’ll probably receive another primetime speaking slot at the Democrat convention this summer so he can bloviate to friendly ears about how “dangerous” Donald Trump is and, in the process, sell his soul to the Democrat devils who only use him for his willingness to play Judas to the MAGA majority.
American traditions and history don’t matter to them. Why don’t they just hold up the specter of Rodney King and cry, “Can’t we just get along?” Would this do the trick? Would Chucky Schumer then cave on all his demands for socialism? Nikki is the one to solve all of the country’s political problems! Yeah, right.
Five, Nikki Haley voters are largely the college educated elites who don’t like the direction of the country and their communities, but still can’t completely embrace the Democrat party.
But they’ll take another four years of Joe Biden rather than have to admit that they’re wrong.Lastly, Nikki Haley – and most of her supporters – will eventually join with and endorse Trump and go through with her vow to support the Republican ticket, if, for nothing else, she amounts to nothing without it.
Of course, Haley herself has indicated she’ll get behind Trump if she ends up losing, but then shifts to her standard “But we’re not going to have to make that choice, because we’re going to win” bull crap that all also-ran candidates use when confronted by reality. But think about it – Haley’s only mission in life from here on out is to run for president again in 2028, hoping her “next in line” status will be the decider in four years.
If Haley opts to go all John-Kasich on MAGA nation and remains apart from Trump, her political career is toast. No shot at a cabinet post or ambassadorship to some far-off land. No consultants maintaining hope that she’ll give them a call a year after Trump is inaugurated asking if they’d be interested in teaming up for 2028.
No, she has to play nice, or it’s all for naught.
Nikki Haley won’t have a great many options when she does finally throw in the proverbial towel and end her 2024 campaign for president. Independent voters and Trump-despising Republicans may love her now, but as soon as she leaves the race, they’ll discard her like a half-eaten week-old stale, hard, pastry. Haley’s support was largely illusory to begin with. The coming weeks will prove it.
Joe Biden economy
Biden cognitive decline
January 6 Committee
Build Back Better
Marjorie Taylor Green
2024 presidential election