“Yeah, but what about the Electoral College?”
Such is the likely reaction from skeptical conservatives these days as anxious Republican primary voters are fed news reports of poll after poll after poll showing certain candidates maintaining leads – and others, sinking – vis-à-vis each other and the probable Democrat presidential nominee next year, none other than stupid-and-corrupt-to-the-core Joe Biden.
Former president Donald Trump, the current runaway leader in the 2024 Republican party primary race, is fond of taking to social media to tout his current poll results whenever they’re released, sometimes including snippets from surveys showing him with a lead and widening cushion against Biden in a potential head-to-head rematch of the nightmarish 2020 contest. Trump reasons, as many conservatives do, that any kind of draw or near-draw for the Republican in the 2024 popular vote would signal good news for his own prospects for election, since Democrats have dominated the national count for… well, a long time.
George W. Bush was the last Republican to win the national popular vote, and it will have been 20 years since he accomplished that feat in 2004. Bush was able to win more votes across the country because one, Democrat John Kerry was a lying flip-flopping idiot who’d been “for something before he was against it”, but also due to the nation still being in shock after 9/11 and knee-deep in the Iraq War.
Next year, regardless of who the Democrats end up nominating (Biden’s not lookin’ so good lately, is he?), they’ll be fronted by a lying flip-flopping idiot who doesn’t believe in anything other than raining goodies and favors down on Democrat voter constituencies, “woke” culture benders and climate alarmist freaks.
The question is whether Democrats will put together the right combination of factors to win enough states to provide them with 270 Electoral Votes. It’s very early, and we can’t even say for sure who will be competing for the 2024 election, but, as of now, Democrats could have a slim lead in one crucial category.
“Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans when it comes to the Electoral College vote in 2024, according to the first predictions out of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
“The initial predictions for the 2024 presidential election give Democrats 247 electoral votes compared to 235 for Republicans, putting Democrats closer to the 270-vote threshold needed to clinch the presidency. However, another 56 electoral votes are considered to be toss-ups, putting the White House in either party’s reach. Four states are considered to be toss-ups headed into the 2024 cycle: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Those states are expected to be determined by suburban, centrists, and Latino voters, especially for those who may be first-time voters, according to the report...
“The new ratings give the first glimpse into the 2024 battleground as presidential candidates seek to determine which states should receive the most of their attention as they vie for their party’s nominations.”
In other words, there’s absolutely nothing new or shocking about the initial projections of Electoral Vote strength going into 2024. Put another way, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The nation looks to be divided down the middle just as it was eight and four years ago, with the White House probably being determined by relative handfuls of voters (in the tens of thousands) in a handful of states (three, four, five or six).
It's a slightly altered calculus that Americans go through every election cycle, the difference being that big states like Florida and Ohio don’t look to be in the toss-up column any longer, and a few small to medium sized states (New Hampshire, Georgia, Nevada) are thought be more blue-leaning for national elections. The respective party campaigns will dump millions into these few contested places, and so will leftist operators hoping to steal the Electoral College again.
There’s much yet to come. In the immortal words of Revolutionary War Naval hero John Paul Jones, “I have not yet begun to fight.” Only this time the quarreling is over the favor of a college that doesn’t really exist and for votes cast by order of state legislative bodies.
It’s no stretch to say a lot will go into how the Electoral College shapes up after Election Day next year, because much goes into it every election, including 2016 and 2020. It’s a painful memory now, but how many conservatives went to bed on Election Night in 2020 thinking that the state vote counting trends looked exactly as they had four years earlier – and that Donald Trump would invariably prevail in those key jurisdictions once again?
Plug your nose and recall how Trump had been declared the winner in Florida – just as he had been in 2016 – and that he was beginning to look good in North Carolina and Ohio, two “swing” states he’d need for victory. Similarly, Trump held solid margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three former members of the “solid blue wall” that had gone Democrat for a generation prior to 2016, when a confident Trump shattered the illusion that these “forgotten Americans” would always rubberstamp the liberal nominee.
Georgia wasn’t looking so solid for Trump this time, but there wasn’t much evidence that the Atlanta area would prevent Trump from taking the Peach State once again. It defied belief that an up and coming state like Georgia would go wholesale for a man like Joe Biden. It just didn’t make sense no matter how many liberal pundits swore that suburban Georgians had had it with Trump.
Out west, of course, early returns in Arizona and Nevada showed Biden leading, but we figured Arizona especially, would definitely turn to Trump in the end, as it always had. Fox News’s “Fat Face” Chris Stirewalt called The Grand Canyon State early for Biden, and alarms went off all over the conservative world.
What the heck was happening? Stirewalt’s premature pronouncement merely provided cover for other election shenanigans to take place elsewhere. Trump ended up losing all six “swing” states that he’d won in 2016, and the rest is history. To my knowledge, thorough investigations into the full spectrum of vote-by-mail cheating allegations have never been conducted. No wonder the establishment media still refers to it as “Trump’s big lie.”
All of which makes it certain that the Electoral College will again be a major bone of contention next November. Many factors will impact the Electoral College numbers in 2024.
Factor number one, candidate quality. This goes without saying as the candidate him or herself is what gets the people to come out to vote. Donald Trump has displayed an uncanny ability to motivate voters on both sides, just as lackluster Mitt Romney dampened the conservative vote in 2012. Next year, Democrats will turn out in force against any Republican who would upset their campaign to transform America into a “woke” socialist dystopia. It doesn’t matter who the GOP nominates, Democrats will be willing, well-funded and foaming at the mouth to vote against him. Or her.
But if the Democrats do go through with offering the unpopular Biden as their standard-bearer, it could have some bearing along the margins. Trump may not be able to reach the 50 percent-plus-one level for a majority, but a few percentage points in those key states will be the difference in the Electoral College. Time will tell.
Two, party efforts to adhere to the new voting rules as reflective of the new political reality will determine the Electoral Vote winner. Everyone knows Republicans all-but allowed Democrats to steal the 2020 election by permitting nationwide universal mail-in voting, guaranteeing victory to the side that was willing to bend the rules to the greatest extent.
Republicans only prevail when they have victory surpluses outside the margin of fraud in any election. When states opened up voting to methods where there is the least amount of security – mail-in votes, drop boxes, ballot harvesting -- it basically assured Biden of a win in the Electoral College. There are signs that Republicans are beginning to catch on, such as in Wisconsin.
Can Republicans out-organize fraud next year?
Three, the outcome of Joe Biden’s corruption scandals -- and Trump’s – will sway states in the Electoral College. As the days go on and senile Joe Biden looks guiltier and guiltier, pressure will build on Democrats to develop a concrete backup plan – or at least one that isn’t named Kamala Harris.
It’s conceivable that an impeached and publicly defiled Joe Biden could still win votes, simply because there are millions of people out there who hate Trump, but the Electoral College prevents a popular uprising or rejection in one region from impacting another. It seems impossible that Biden could avoid a fallout from his criminal wrongdoing.
Once again, the Electoral College will have served its purpose.
Lastly, if Trump wins the Electoral College but Biden wins the popular vote, expect a massive leftist effort to abolish the institution prior to the official count. Civil war on the horizon? The protests would be historic and the violence… unprecedented? Faithless electors? Electors willing to defy their state legislatures? Be prepared for anything.
With over fifteen months to go until America votes for its next president in 2024, polls will differ on who leads the horserace and which party has the upper hand. Republicans shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the Electoral College is what really matters within the scheme of things. And they should be working overtime now to make sure the vote – and the count – are fair this time.
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