Ronald Reagan won 49 states on his way to reelection in 1984, which pundits, election experts and laypeople alike described as a “landslide” back then and still consider the election a benchmark for political trouncing. The “Gipper” won nearly 60 percent of the popular vote in addition, a mark thought nearly unobtainable today.
That year, Democrat Walter Mondale narrowly won his home state of Minnesota (49.72 percent to 49.54 percent), thus avoiding what would’ve been the most one-sided presidential election in history. My grandfather was a lifelong resident of The Gopher State and a Republican through and through who loved Ronald Reagan, but he passed a little over a year before Minnesota voted. Would Grampa’s vote have tipped the balance to the incumbent?
Probably not. But growing up in the eighties I figured that, because of Reagan in 1984, that every state was pretty much “in play” for presidential elections. Time and successive quadrennial votes proved me wrong to the extent that now, political prognosticators consider about 80 percent of the Electoral Map as settled before even a single vote is cast in any of them.
Will this year be different? Is there another “landslide” in the making? In an article titled “7 states where Trump could expand the map in November”, Jared Gans and Julia Mueller reported at The Hill:
“Former President Trump is talking about flipping blue-leaning states in his already tight race with President Biden for the White House.
“Trump and Biden are fighting for a handful of key battlegrounds — including Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan — but the former president’s campaign contends that traditionally bluer states are also in play.
“In recent weeks, he’s set his sights on Minnesota and Virginia, states that voted against him in both 2016 and 2020 — but where some polls now suggest the two are just a few points apart. Polling would likely still need to shift more in Trump’s favor to make these states more realistic, but there are some signs that they could eventually be on the table.”
The seven states Gans and Mueller listed are: In no particular order, Minnesota, New York, New Mexico, New Jersey, Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Who knows, perhaps the Hill writers decided that if the state has “New” in its name that it needed to be included as a potential Trump target, because some of these places just don’t make much sense to list with the rest.
Gans’ and Mueller’s piece offers reasoned individual conclusions for possibly going Trump red this year. Each place is unique and history, demographic considerations, ethnic breakdowns and campaign resources allocated will make some difference there. But, in general, each state’s ultimate aftermath will come down to a best guess scenario.
All of the conjecture surrounding which state or states Trump can flip in November is little more than open speculation at this point in the campaign. We’re still learning how the guilty verdicts in Trump’s “hush money” trial will impact the overall race, be it boosting Trump’s prospects even further or the jury’s conclusion merely motivating some fence-sitters to see the finish as unjustified or wrong in either direction. I doubt it, but there are an awful lot of people in the big cities and across the fruited plain, and presumably, they’ve all got their own views on what “justice” meant in New York City.
Further, economic conditions could improve, or most likely, worsen in key areas around the country. Legendary economist Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” isn’t given free rein in all parts of the nation, but here’s thinking some red state economies might actually get better as the months go by and money-making chances become clearer for the region’s citizens.
I know, for example, a young couple that recently relocated from a purple/blue state in an “up for grabs” locale to a southern state where the economy is booming. Young talent tends to follow economic opportunities and certainly, similarly minded folks will search for a place to start out where the cost of living is more in line with their career prospects.
Small fluctuations in cost of living or economic forecasts could conceivably sway the political opinions of those in the middle, which, again, maybe makes some states more “winnable” for Trump, or “losable” by senile Joe Biden.
Another big unknown in any expand-the-map scenario is whether the voter erosion in some traditional Democrat constituencies is either lesser or more severe than current polls indicate that it is. For months, pollsters have suggested that more African-Americans (especially men) are ostensibly considering Trump this year, and it’s also common knowledge that Hispanics are trending away from their once-dominant devotion to the Democrat party.
Democrats count on “newcomers” to prefer joining the party that advocates for open borders, nearly-unlimited welfare benefits, public schools that welcome children of “undocumented” immigrants and a look-the-other-way orientation towards law enforcement. Why, for example, has the California paradise of San Diego suddenly become a top destination of choosing for illegal invaders?
But the Hispanics who’ve been in the United States, most of whom are American citizens or possess legal papers, aren’t keen on the cultural and societal changes the waves of illegal aliens have brought with them. These include competition for jobs, housing, increased suspicion of their persons and motivations from law enforcement, etc. Besides, the term “Hispanic” encompasses many ethnic classifications. Why would an American citizen of Mexican heritage, for example, care about allowing illegals from South America to remain in the country?
Young voters, too. Though I don’t have statistics to cite, but here’s thinking that 2024’s graduates have the poorest prospects for improving themselves than any class before them. For years, they’ve had their heads filled with garbage about racism, “climate change”, American prejudices, questioning this nation’s foundation (and Founding Fathers) and been taught that they’re being held down by rich people.
And further, they’re told that their “rights” have been taken away from them by the Supreme Court and its originalist majority. Or that criminal miscreants like George Floyd are this generation’s heroes because cops are bad people and single them out for abuse because of skin color, where they live or where their ancestors came from.
All of these dynamics could easily factor in to whether a state becomes in play – and the Electoral Map is “expanded” to include one or both candidates.
Recall how, in 2020, said map was “expanded” to include Georgia and Arizona for Democrats. Remember how fat-face Chris Stirewalt, then at the Fox News Channel, held Georgia open long into the evening as Donald Trump maintained what looked to be a pretty substantial lead, and then proclaimed that senile Joe Biden had “won” in Arizona when many of the Republican-leaning areas were yet to report.
It's amazing how states suddenly become “competitive” when the leftist establishment media wishes them to be. Good luck for Trump supporters in hoping the reverse happens this year.
Though Trump is likely correct that he’ll be close in some of the above-mentioned states. As The Hill journalists noted, the Republican came within a half-point of taking Minnesota in 2016 at a time when both Michigan and Wisconsin went for Trump, shattering the fictional “blue wall” and signaling what many observers surmised was a movement in the practical-minded Midwest away from Democrat dominance.
Don’t forget that Iowa was a “swing state” during the Obama years, which Trump turned blood red along with Ohio. Neither are thought to be in play any longer. Therefore, Trump already altered the map, didn’t he?
Personally, I doubt that Trump could turn New Jersey or New York red despite large rallies he’s recently held there which were attended by tens of thousands of boisterous local backers lending the impression that their states were ready to turn the trick. Through these sizable showings it’s become clear that enthusiasm for Trump among his faithful is just as intense in these places as it is in states that aren’t in danger of turning from red to blue such as Alabama or Idaho.
In the three decades I’ve lived in Virginia, I’ve watched the Old Dominion morph from a reliable red state to a wishy-washy purple state to a fairly solid blue one for presidential elections, even if the final victory margins haven’t been overly dramatic for Democrats. Governor Glenn Youngkin’s hard-earned win in 2021 provided some hope for Republicans going in to 2024 – but can the GOP flip Virginia this year? I wouldn’t bet the house on it. But not inconceivable.
Similarly, New Mexico has become pretty solid Democrat in the past twenty years, another state where Trump came close in 2016. If the polls showing Hispanic voters moving towards Trump this cycle are accurate, I would expect the Republican to do well there just as he’s supposedly running in Arizona and Nevada.
As for the others, inclusive of states not on this list? It’s only natural for Trump to say that he’s going to win and contest everywhere, one, because it’s not in his nature to ever retreat on anything, and two, such bravado works on the mindset of senile Joe Biden and his Democrat honks, most of whom are scared to death that Trump is running so well despite all that’s been happening to him.
Trump’s strategy to take his campaign to the so-called “Belly of the beast” is smart. Reaching voters directly is much wiser – and cheaper – than relying on political data manipulation to gain a foothold. Citizens of every state would love to see Trump visit. And the reaction would be similar to the others.
Though it’s not probable that we’ll experience another Ronald Reagan 1984-type “landslide” election this year, it’s definitely possible that Donald Trump will flip some territories Democrats take for granted. The political winds have shifted. Will they blow senile Joe Biden’s chances out with them?
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